In preparation for an Argus Foundation Strategic Planning meeting, I found some facts about land use, both nationally and locally, that formatted into a multiple choice quiz, were presented in order to demonstrate how little we know about the "truth" of development, in a community where we have more experts on development than we have mosquitoes. Here is a sample of the questions in my quiz. See how many you can answer correctly.

1. How much land is currently "developed" in the US?

2. How much total developed land in the US is "Urbanized?"

3. How much of total US cropland was converted to developed land between 1992-1997?

4. What proportion of Atlanta's population represents "new resident" growth since 1980?

5. Since 1990 average residential lot sizes in US have.

A. Increased by 10%
B. Increased by 15%
C. Have stayed the same
D. Decreased by 10%
E. Decreased by 15%


6. From 1990-2000 what city with population over 50,000 in the state of Florida grew the slowest?

A. Cape Coral
B. Daytona Beach
C. Jacksonville
D. Sarasota
E. Largo


7. What city in the US is most like the City of Sarasota, based upon density of population per square mile?

A. Dallas
B. Bangor, ME
C. Jacksonville
D. West Palm Beach
E. Union City, NJ


8. Match the rates of population growth between 1990 to 2000 to the appropriate counties of Southwest Florida.

9. Out of 3,141 counties in the US where does Sarasota County rank in rate of growth between 1990 and 2000?

10. Between 1990 and 2000 what county in Florida grew at a similar rate to Sarasota?

A. Orange
B. Duval
C. Dixie
D. Escambia
E. Holmes


Well, how did you do? Probably, like all of us, you did not score 100! What everyone can probably agree on, is you can't go waving any of these statistics around and come to a conclusion that our population growth in Sarasota is out of control. The City of Sarasota had the slowest actual population growth of any city over 50,000 people in the state of Florida over the past ten years, adding a total of 1,754 people to its population of 50,961, while Sarasota County had the slowest percentage rate of growth of any county on the West Coast of Florida. While some politicians want to reduce density, the City of Sarasota has a density per square mile of 3.540 similar to that of Dallas, but less than the 5,000 per square mile of Bangor, Maine. Jacksonville has 971 people per square mile, while West Palm Beach has 1.489 people. In isolation do those numbers mean anything to you when you stop to consider the character of each community? On the other hand if you were to tell me that you did not want to live with the same density per square mile as that of Union City, New Jersey, 52,972 per square mile, I would understand. Certainly nobody wants to see run away growth not supported by infrastructure, but can we not stop this unfounded hysteria that saps our economic vitality and imposes unreasonable restraints by local government on responsible, market driven investment?

The Argus Foundation opposition to the Downtown Master Plan, supported by the commercial builders, and downtown property owners is a clarion call that asks government to recognize that over the past 15 years there has been no commercial office space development in downtown Sarasota, and once again, rather than moving toward a downtown of greater vitality, we are headed now in the opposite direction.

For the years 1996 to 1999 downtown office space vacancy hovered between 3% and 5%. Today downtown office space vacancy is over 10% as rumors circulate that more office space will be vacated as tenants move to Lakewood Ranch, Jacaranda, and other outlying locations. The City of Sarasota after two years of negotiation to partner with the private sector at Palm Avenue to build needed public parking has abandoned the project for a second time. The cavalier reasoning of "negotiations being difficult," and "failure to meet" an arbitrary city deadline, is followed by whimsical dreamings that "the third time will be a charm." Like the shadows in Plato's cave, we have come to accept as our reality that the world will keep beating a path to our door regardless of how they are being treated. Unrecognized business flight by those that say they want more affordable housing, better wages, business support for the arts and social services, fails to take into account the fact that their embracing the popular opinion that we must stop rampant growth is leading to more flight and less investment. As long as we do not despoil our natural environment, there will always be people who regardless of cost will want residential housing in Sarasota. To the contrary, those who are in business are required to make a profit. When the cost of doing business, (overheads, taxes, regulatory burdens, etc.,) prevents business from making a profit, regardless of how nice the community might be, business is forced to go elsewhere.

If we really want an integrated economy in Sarasota, we better regain our equilibrium to recognize the facts necessary to attain that goal.

If we are not careful the history of Sarasota will be written on the folly of misguided majority opinion. To those who have dismissed Argus and reasoned voices of the business community as crazy and only self-serving, you need to pay attention. One of us is likely to be wrong, and you better find out which one it is. The end result makes an awfully big difference to the future and the history of Sarasota.

BACK TO ARCHIVE

Is Majority Opinion Hurting Us?
May, 2002 newsletter to the membership Volume XIII, No. 2
In our 21st century all inclusive, information filled world, more and more we are finding that majority opinion, when based upon the misrepresentation of facts, is leading us down a path that is harmful to both our personal financial and civic health. In our financial lives we have seen how the touting of "DOT.COMS", and purported gurus of Wall Street have led us down a slippery slope of financial chicanery. In our civic life we have been blessed with self-anointed seers as the protectors of our quality of life, loosely distorting facts to the point that no intellectual debate can take place. Modern day Merlin's have convinced many that hordes of humanity are destroying Sarasota and its surroundings, and only through draconian governmental regulation will we be able to save our little corner of paradise. The fact is that problems can no more be solved correctly by majority opinion than can a problem in mathematics. If truth be of interest, we would be better off if we returned to a time where we solved our problems based upon undistorted facts without resorting to manipulated popular opinion.

1. Only 5% of the land in the United States is developed, with the most urbanized state being New Jersey with one-third (33%) of this land developed. So despite the claim that we are running out of land, in America, the majority of our land is rural and in open space.
Source: U.S.D.A. National Resources Inventory
2. 3/4 of all developed land is urbanized
Source: U.S.D.A. National Resources Inventory
3. 15% - If the truth be known most cropland is being converted into parks and open space. You don't have to look past the boundaries of Sarasota County where over 30% of the land is in, or will be soon, public ownership.
Source: U.S.D.A. National Resources Inventory
4. Atlanta had a population growth rate between 1980-2000 of 75%. If you combine births, deaths, and net migration - 3/4 of metro Atlanta's population is new.
Source: U.S. Census 2000
5. Lot size has decreased by 10% - rather than using more land for housing we are using less.
Source: National Association of Home Builders
6. Sarasota. In cities over 50,000 - out of 601 cities in the US with populations over 50,000, Sarasota ranks number 463 in rate of growth over the past ten years. That translates to a growth rate of 3.4% over a ten-year period of time, or a rate of three tenths of a percent per year!
Sources: Demographia
7. Dallas
Source: Demographia
8. Collier-B; Lee-C; Charlotte-D; Sarasota-E; Manatee-F; Desoto-A;
Source: Demographia
9. 791
Source: Demographia
10. Holmes
Source: Demographia